Nigeria could face a looming food crisis despite a surge in fertiliser production and exports, according to a new report by the Business and Climate Intelligence Think Initiative (BACITI).
In its latest Economic Insight report, BACITI warned that the country’s growing fertiliser industry masks deeper problems within the agricultural sector, including high input costs, limited farmer access, climate shocks, and weak distribution systems — all of which threaten national food security.
The report, published by the Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment, describes this as Nigeria’s “fertiliser–food paradox” — a situation where the nation’s industrial growth in fertiliser production fails to translate into higher food yields or improved livelihoods.
BACITI highlighted that Nigeria has rapidly become a key player in global fertiliser exports, with major producers such as Indorama, Notore, and Dangote Group driving large-scale production. Dangote’s recent $2.5 billion investment in a new three-million-ton-per-year fertiliser plant in Ethiopia was noted as a major step toward positioning Nigeria as a fertiliser hub for Africa and beyond.
However, the report revealed that local farmers are not benefiting from this progress. In 2022, Nigeria produced 3.46 million metric tonnes of urea fertiliser — a 28% increase from the previous year — yet only 1.6 million tonnes were consumed locally. This means less than 20% of total production went to Nigerian farms, with the rest exported to countries like Brazil, India, and the United States.
By comparison, countries such as Brazil and India use far more fertiliser per hectare, leading to higher productivity and stronger food security.
BACITI linked this low fertiliser usage to Nigeria’s rising food inflation, worsening trade deficit, and increasing dependence on food imports.
As of December 2024, the country’s headline inflation hit 34%, while food inflation soared to 39.84%, the highest in nearly 30 years. Prices of staples like rice, maize, yams, and bread have surged due to subsidy removal, currency devaluation, and supply disruptions.
Despite vast arable land and a favourable climate, Nigeria spent around $10 billion on food imports in 2023 — including $3 billion on grains. Agricultural imports stood at $6.6 billion, while exports were just $2.3 billion, creating a massive deficit that continues to strain foreign reserves.
In contrast, countries like Brazil maintain strong agricultural surpluses, and Egypt has reduced its food trade deficit through targeted reforms and diversification.
BACITI concluded that without urgent policy interventions to make fertiliser affordable and accessible for smallholder farmers, Nigeria risks facing “a paradox of plenty” — where industrial expansion coexists with widespread hunger.